Star Citizen & Squadron 42 Release Dates

Update (5 January 2023): Release date estimates have been removed in favor of completion percentage. Completion Percentage is based on SCFOCUS Star Citizen & Squadron 42 stretch goals features list.

Important Notice (19 April 2022): Release dates estimates on this site are designed as an optimism buffer to help the organization plan ahead for activity such as in game events and org recruitment campaigns (starting soon). Additionally, progress tracking from which these estimates derive can be found here. Please browse the completion progress before interpreting this content. The estimated release dates reprsent a buffer for release hype. The SCFOCUS April 2022 report coming at the end of the month will provide new "Not Before" dates as well as an updated release window for S42 outlined in greater detail than previous reports.

Release date estimates are changing from a not before format to a completion percentage. This better reflects the state of both projects than giving arbitrary dates what are likely to lapse and could cause confusion about the actual state of the game. Release date estimates will still be produced but more sporadically. Progress is still being tracked in our Star Citizen & Squadron 42 Progress Reports.

The game is clearly in mid alpha testing phase headed to late alpha. Most of the core tech of the game is already playable and the game is starting to feel like a finished product. There is ground combat, space combat, inventory, looting, trading, racing, mining and salvage. Combined arms events like Jumptown showcase how the technology has come together to provide an unparalleled gaming experience even with so many new games being released each year.

This year's Letter From The Chairman provided increased insight into the current state of development of the game(s). The patch release model for Star Citizen is changing again with a focus on more stable Live environments with longer Evocati and PTU testing. A shift was made towards less major patches as entity and network technology being worked on is going to heavily change the game.

Star Citizen Alpha 4.0 should bring the technology for higher player counts and the addition of unlimited content. While the company hopes to have this in by end of 2022 we have seen these large technical deviations can cause larger-than-anticipated delays. The SCFOCUS release date for Alpha 4.0 is being set to Q1 2023 as end of 2022 seems overly optimistic but development has sped up and improved as shown by the reports in this series of articles since we started tracking progress.

Squadron 42 appears to be wrapping up as noticed in our own observations of the Star Citizen Roadmap. Teams appear to be finalizing works of various stages scheduled through end of 2022. Based on what is already finished for Squadron (working in Star Citizen) the major technical hurdles have all been passed (large ships, seamless transition, ai behavior, etc...). Based on the roadmap teams the major work has all been complete and is in polish. Based on our own tracker 65% of Squadron 42 features are in Star Citizen playable with most the remaining missing features possibly finished as well internally. It is no longer possible for SCFOCUS to estimate no chance of Squadron 42 release dates.

For Star Citizen, the Letter From The Chairman states a new roadmap for Alpha 4.0 and beta.

What is Alpha 4.0?

Pyro and the ability to leave an item anywhere in the universe and return weeks later to pick it up (unless someone has taken it). It is also the start of Server Meshing that will allow player caps to drastically increase.

What is Star Citizen Beta?

Star Citizen Beta is considered to be the time when Star Citizen is mostly feature complete and in the phase of adding content and improving performance towards final release. Additionally the player cap should be very high by this point.

Not Before Release date estimates have been changed to:

Squadron 42: Removed

Star Citizen Beta: Not Before 2024

Browse historic progress reports

As Squadron 42 development continues it is clear there is significant divergence from the list of features these reports were tracking and actual deliverables as they are being revealed to greater detail in the official roadmap. View list of tracked features for Star Citizen & Squadron 42

The SCFOCUS report for April 2022 will be looking at this in greater detail and producing new estimates.

Not Before Release date estimates will be pushed back further as the previous estimate date for Squadron 42 approaches.

Squadron 42: Changing after April 2022 Report

Star Citizen: Changing after April 2022 Report

Browse historic progress reports

The last Progress Report for Star Citizen & Squadron 42 confirms that 2020 has been a year of very little progress on Star Citizen (and probably also but less so S42).

Estimated completion of Squadron 42 stands at about one third (30-something percent). The last progress reports in the series show clearly that development has shifted to focus more on Squadron 42. Even with this the completed major features of S42 continue to underwhelm with their quantity. As such, it seems unlikely that S42 closed beta will be in 2021, probably at least until 2022.

Given the great discrepancy between progress and feature list the "not before" release date for S42 is being pushed back to Q2 2022.

For Star Citizen it bodes even worse. With work on Star Citizen virtually stagnant in 2020 (only 1% of features were put live this year), two more years are being added to the Star Citizen "not before" release date estimate.

Therefore the release date estimates are being changed as follows:

Squadron 42: Not before Q2 2022

Star Citizen: Not before Q3 2024

To predict the “unpredictable” the estimates provided at SC FOCUS are based on planned features and what is currently playable (released to Alpha testing). Progress is guesstimated based on the following metrics:

Progress shown of features (as in demoed at an event -> first time a feature is seen)
Star Citizen & Squadron 42 progress reports
Historic progress rate of similar features
Optimism buffer (to adjust for overly optimistic dates)
Experience following Star Citizen’s development closely since 2015
Preempting delays from community events, holiday seasons or major technical hurdles
Playtesting the Star Citizen Alpha for several years
Experience in many Alpha and Beta MMO games since 1995

For Squadron 42 it is also possible to estimate the status of many features because when the feature appears in the Star Citizen Alpha it is already known to be significantly further along in Squadron 42.

Release Date Estimates give how long a feature is going to take from announced until it is testable in player's hands.

One simple example of this methodology in action was the prediction that Alpha 3.0 would release at least one year after it was demoed. Divergence between what was playable in 2.6 and what was shown as 3.0 was significant so one year was added to get it playable. Even though the Estimate was still one quarter short, it highlights how it is possible to take the known knowns and add them to the unknown knowns to generate a "close" estimate of 75% prediction accuracy.

Another very long shot estimate (7 to 8 quarters away) was for Alpha 3.2 which originally featured:

Crusader
Hurston
Microtech
Ship to ship refuel
Object Container Streaming

While the 3.2 Patch eventually ended up having none of these features the SC FOCUS estimate for these features to be in the game placed the features 11 quarters or more away. By Q1 2020 it seems that the above features should finally be testable - now known as Alpha 3.9.

SC FOCUS Release Date Estimates stipulate how long it might be until a set of features are in the game. They do not predict when a Patch Version will be released.

When it is said that deviation is large from a feature set it means that there is a large amount of feature set or scale required to go from current to planned. For example, if all there was playable was Arena Commander, to go from that to Planets and Moons with seamless transition is a large deviation. Hence close to year was added.

If however, it needs to be estimated how much time to add MicroTech to Crusader, if Hurston and Arrcorp are already in the game then the divergence is very small. Hence one more quarter (at most two) is all that is needed.

It can be stated simply that Small Divergence of features require Short Time to Implement while Large Divergence of features require Long Time to Implement. The skill is in defining (estimating) the time difference (Δt) with acceptable degree of accuracy.

These release date estimates are just that - estimates. They are guesses at when Star Citizen and Squadron 42 could release. Additionally, No Sooner Than dates are used. This is because almost all release date estimates have fallen short so the confidence is in knowing / guessing when the features cannot be in before by.

This information is not official and has no basis to any official communications or information from Roberts Space Industries. It is entirely based on experience with the Star Citizen Alpha and combines speculation on information released to date.

This information is purely speculative and opinion. No insider knowledge (not even Evocati) is used nor accessible.

By reading this information you automatically agree to treat it as speculative, unofficial and for entertainment purposes only.

The release date estimates will be updated as new information is revealed and are subject to change completely without notice. A record of any changes to these release date estimates will be kept on this page.

These date estimates are highly volatile and should not be used as dates for when either game should launch, but instead, are intended to provide dates by which with some degree of prediction accuracy either game should not be released before the dates.

Based on scoring accuracy of previous estimates it is possible to provide reasonable dates from which (read earliest possible time) it is possible Star Citizen and Squadron 42 can be considered feature complete. In other words, stipulated dates show an early possible date for the features to be released but the real release dates will probably be some time after (but not much later than) - with a high degree of confidence.

For Squadron 42 (the first game to be complete) dates are calculated based on what is on the Squadron 42 Roadmap as well as taking into consideration what is currently playable in the Star Citizen Alpha.

For Star Citizen the progress is a lot slower than Squadron 42 as seen by our quarterly progress reports and feature list completion. Estimated release dates are calculated based on what is playable in the persistent universe along with all other factors mentioned.

Estimate Scoring Rules as follows:

For estimates given within One (1) month and Three (3) months:

Estimate must be calculated to the week

For Estimates given more than Three (3) months away and within Six (6) months

Estimate must be calculated to the month

For estimates given more than Six (6) months away:

Estimate must be calculated to the quarter

Note: The Release Date Estimates were produced a long time before the scoring was set up. Any future Release Date Estimates will use the above guidelines. Additionally, the long dates used two Quarters so future Estimates will provide just one quarter for better scoring (harder accuracy). This split (weeks/months/quarters) helps us to value short estimates and long estimates more similarly.

Patch (Live)	Date of Estimate	Estimate	Actual Release	Off by	Result	Score Accuracy
Alpha 2.6.1	14th Jan 2017	1st Week Feb	17th Feb 2017	1 week	Lapsed	(5-4)/5 = 80% (weeks)
Alpha 2.6.2	24th Jan 2017	1st Week March	1st April 2017	4 weeks	Lapsed	(9-6)/9 = 67% (weeks)
Alpha 3.0	24th Jan 2017	Q3 2017	24th Dec 2017	1 quarter	Lapsed	(4-3)/4 = 75% (quarters)
Alpha 3.1	24th Jan 2017	Q4 2017 -> Q1 2018	2nd Feb 2018	0 quarters	Lapsed	(5-5)/5 = 100% (quarters)
Alpha 3.2*	24th Jan 2017	Q3 2018 -> Q4 2018	Q1 2020 (est)	5 quarters	Lapsed	(13-8)/13 = 62% (quarters)
Average Accuracy						77%

The current Squadron 42 Roadmap shows a potential Closed Beta Testing period in Q2 2020 (Already has been pushed back to Q3 2020).

Looking at the S42 feature set, it can be seen that a lot of work is already being carried out on many of the features all the way through Q3 2020.

Since the estimate provided by SC Focus needs to take into account potential delays that are not included in the Roadmap - such as the addition of features required that perhaps are not originally envisioned - a buffer time needs to be added to the estimate time frame. Additionally, since it is unknown how long Beta will last a sufficient cushion needs to be granted for the Beta phase and polish beyond that as well.

Given the scale and scope of Squadron 42 an estimate of double the Beta time plus another 6 months for final polish places release somewhere between 9 months and 12 months from the end of Beta date on the Roadmap.

Since all estimates have been optimistic even giving plenty of buffer the conclusion is that Squadron 42 should release no sooner than Q2 2021.

With the progress speed being achieved over the past several quarters it can also be "guesstimated" that Squadron 42 will not take longer than an additional 12 months after the estimate date. This means a window of release between Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 but it is incredibly unlikely that Squadron 42 will release after Q2 2022.

There have been significant delays in the development of Squadron 42 but given what is already playable in the Star Citizen alpha and what can be seen as progress since the introduction of the Roadmaps there is light at the end of the tunnel with S42 being closer to the end of the development cycle.

Squadron 42 will be Closed Beta. This means that no information will leak to the community during S42 Beta unless purposely leaked by CIG. Additionally, testing will be performed by in-house testers who work from CIG offices. While it is possible that some Evocati testers might be offered the opportunity to test, they will have to do so from CIG's offices to avoid leaks.

This information is purely speculative and is not based on any official sources for none could be found at the time of writing. This is an experienced assessment based on years of closely following the game's progress.

Star Citizen is currently developing slower than Squadron 42 given that teams have shifted towards completing the single player game. The teams should return to Star Citizen once Squadron 42 has shipped. This means that to calculate the Star Citizen Release Date Estimate it is easier to look at the Squadron 42 timeline and then assign additional time guessed for taking the game to Beta and then Post Beta (final commercial release).

It is important to note that Star Citizen Beta will be the period after Alpha where in game currency stops being reset each major patch. It is the intention of the Star Citizen project to fully launch with a "lived-in" universe where some players have already progressed during the Beta before the masses join the massively multiplayer game.

As such the Star Citizen Release Date is actually two important dates as follows:

The date when server resets cease which could also be called Persistent Beta.
The date when Persistent Beta is over and the game commercially releases and drops the "Beta" tag.

Beta for historic MMO universes can span from 6 months to years with some games never actually leaving Beta proper. This makes forecasting the release dates for Star Citizen significantly more challenging as there are likely several years left until even the first scenario - Persistent Beta. Feature deviation is very large so the time estimate needs to be large also.

The SC Focus Completion Features for Star Citizen tracks progress for a final version which could be considered Post Beta. Following major feature progress closely for years has helped guide informed estimates that can finally be provided to the final road for Star Citizen.

Since Star Citizen is (at the time of this estimate) missing significant core elements of an MMO - such as AI Subsumption, Aliens, or Massive Multiplayer - the path to Beta is still a long way off. Coupled with the teams focusing on Squadron 42 over Star Citizen this makes progress stagnate somewhat until Squadron 42 is complete.

Given the Squadron 42 completion Estimate for somewhere between Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 this means progress acceleration for Star Citizen should happen sometime around 2022.

The earliest possible window for Star Citizen Persistent Beta is Q3 2022 and the Post Beta Release no sooner than 2023. Given the great feature deviation between the current Alpha and what is planned the long time period means that these Star Citizen estimates will be revised in the future.

Everyone knows release dates are impossible to predict, how do you claim to be able to make these predictions?

Because I am a Banu Monk from Trise System.

Why did you make up a prediction scoring formula?

Because the prediction accuracy of past predictions had to be measured to determine if SC FOCUS predictions were good enough from which to base Final Game Release predictions for Star Citizen and Squadron 42.

Why do so many people think predictions are impossibru?

Because they are only Human while I am Banu.

What happens if your predictions are wrong?

A binary answer: You either get to play the game before the predicted date or you wait longer.

Why are you allowed to change your prediction dates?

Because as new information is revealed the dates are amended (with notes) to provide you with better, more accurate dates. Alas it's called learning.

Edit: 19th November 2020

Massive delays throughout 2020 have caused the release date estimates to be pushed back significantly since the first time this document was created.

Edit: 14th March 2020

Added under Methodology the Star Citizen and Squadron 42 progress reports. These lengthy text reports provide a detailed summary of progress and are ideal references to gather progress data from. While they have always been used to formulate release date speculation it was an oversight not to mention the progress reports in the methodology list earlier.

Edit: 29th September 2019

The Squadron 42 Roadmap Beta quarter has recently been pushed back to Q3 2020. This brings the potential release date closer to SC FOCUS estimate.

Edit: 7th September 2019

Added information segment on Squadron 42 Closed Beta details. There seems to be a lot of misinformation online calling S42 Open Beta when no such reference has officially been made. In reality, all previous communications indicate that S42 Beta will be Closed to the public and community for spoiler reasons.

Edit: 18th August 2019

While this article originally mentioned the estimate for 3.2 (features for which are more like 3.9+) as being 11 quarters, the actual estimate was only 7 to 8 quarters and therefore off by at least 3 to 4 quarters.

The numbers are being adjusted to reflect this on the page and the Estimate Confidence Score is being lowered accordingly.

Star Citizen

Completion

63%

In Alpha Beta Launch

Squadron 42

Completion

100%

In polish

In this article

Squadron 42 is Feature Complete

Update to Release Date Estimates - January 2023

Update to Release Date Estimates - May 2022

Squadron 42: Removed

Star Citizen Beta: Not Before 2024

Update to Release Date Estimates - April 2022

Squadron 42: Changing after April 2022 Report

Star Citizen: Changing after April 2022 Report

Update to Release Date Estimates - November 2021

Squadron 42: Not before Q2 2022

Star Citizen: Not before Q3 2024

Update to Release Date Estimates - November 2020

Introduction to Star Citizen & Squadron 42 Release Date Estimates

Methodology

Examples of how release date estimates are formed

Deviation Explained

Caveats

Estimate Confidence

Confidence Scoring

Accuracy Scoring Rules

Scores

*About Alpha 3.2 Release Date Estimate

Optimism & Difficulty

About "No Sooner Than" Dates

Squadron 42 Release Date Estimate Details

Squadron 42 Release Date Estimate Conclusion

About Squadron 42 Beta

Squadron 42 Closed Beta Details

Star Citizen Release Date Estimate Details

Star Citizen Release Date Estimate Conclusion

Release Date Speculation Questions & Answers

Everyone knows release dates are impossible to predict, how do you claim to be able to make these predictions?

Why did you make up a prediction scoring formula?

Why do so many people think predictions are impossibru?

What happens if your predictions are wrong?

Why are you allowed to change your prediction dates?

Edits and Updates to this page